Verifying Japanese inflation statistics using alt data

Daryl Smith, CFA, Head of Research (London)

Post feature

We summarise conclusions drawn from an academic paper comparing Japanese CPI data with a Neudata listed alternative data provider in an attempt to evaluate the accuracy of official statistics vs a ‘true’ inflation measure. The authors conclude that 1) the Japanese CPI is a poor predictor of actual inflation when measured inflation is below c.2%, and 2) the US PCE deflator methodology is superior to the Japanese CPI methodology. We also evaluate several alternative Japanese data providers and recommend further academic reading on this topic.

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The authors attempt to show how accurately the Japanese CPI informs investors about

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