From Taiwan to Russia, millions of people have already put a small cross in a small box in 2024. However, some of the year’s biggest elections, including the US presidential race, are yet to come. After last visiting this topic in 2020, we expand on the alternative data options available to predict election results and possible fallouts.

SUMMARY

• Politicians and elections have the capacity to move markets and influence investment outcomes. In this year of elections, 2024 has the capacity multiple times, with the biggest event being the US presidential election in November.
• While some methods of analysing elections are well-known, such as polling and assessing demographics, alternative data can offer additional perspectives.
• This ranges from capturing the electorate’s mood through methods such as sentiment and search data, to tracking campaigns through jet tracking and advertising.
• Similarly, the results of elections can have ramifications, especially when unexpected. Economic and macro signals or political risk indicators can help to highlight the electorate’s mood, as well as offer context for any fallout.