How can alternative data be used to monitor the Iran conflict?

Impacts of the US-Israel-Iran conflict are already being felt around the globe. Due to disruptions in production in the Gulf, and restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz, global oils and natural gas prices have spiked. In this intelligence report, Neudata maps the relevant data providers that can help investors track the short and long term impacts of the conflict, from on-the-ground satellite images and vessel tracking, to government procurement and global commodity flow data. 

On-the-ground impacts 

Neudata highlights how satellite imagery can provide lower-latency signals of damage to key infrastructure and the associated risks of escalation, while also enabling users to combat disinformation. It provides an overview of the key providers of satellite imagery for these use cases, as well as providers of SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), which can be used, for instance, to detect the movement of missiles or trucks. 

Similarly, vessel tracking has received notable attention in the news throughout the conflict so far, being used to highlight the reduction in transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The report finds that two large data providers have acquired underlying satellite AIS sources, enabling them to offer stronger, and potentially timelier, coverage of vessels entering and leaving the area.  

Neudata also highlights the relevant providers of flight tracking data, as disruptions to the airspace in and around the Gulf have already begun to show material impacts on airlines’ performance. 

Prediction markets 

The report finds that dramatic changes in investor sentiment can be identified through prediction market data. Neudata points out that high-conviction betting activity on prediction market platforms preceded the run-up to Khamenei’s demise. Large, anonymous bets, placed by new accounts taking contrarian positions, are increasingly being flagged as potential signals of insider knowledge, and are now being monitored in near real-time by hedge funds looking for an edge. Neudata recently published an intelligence report on how investors can use prediction market data across a range of use cases; data buyers can request access here.

‍Impacts on global commodities markets

Neudata highlights various providers of commodity flows, production and inventory data. These datasets can be used to understand countries’ stocks and the potential for excess supply to be (or not to be) released to the market, as well as cuts to production caused by storage limitations. 

While such datasets tend to focus on oil and gas, the report also emphasises the importance of the region to the global food supply chain and fertiliser production. Alongside rising energy prices, global food prices are also likely to increase, given that over a third of global urea (widely used in nitrogen fertiliser) exports pass through the strait. Neudata suggests a handful of datasets that can be used to monitor these changes, with offerings across the list of vendors providing data on dry bulks, US rail freight and fertiliser pricing. 

How to track potential implications 

The report speculates about other sources of data which could be used to track the potential implications of the conflict, should it escalate or de-escalate. 

Data buyers can request the full report here.