In January 2026, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014; in March 2026, it fell a further 6% in response to the Iran conflict. While it has long been discussed whether consumer sentiment has a causal or correlational relationship with consumption, research shows that the two move together. Given that consumer spending accounts for ~65-70% of US GDP, understanding consumers can be a useful proxy for forecasting GDP. With the current conflict in Iran ongoing, this article shows how, in periods of geopolitical risk, consumer confidence is more susceptible to changes in government policy. We also highlight datasets that could be used to monitor consumer confidence and geopolitical risk.