Can Twitter and Google sentiment lead stock market returns?

Daryl Smith, CFA, Head of Research (London)

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This paper attempts to analyse the effectiveness of using Twitter and Google to predict stock index returns across the US, UK, Canada and China by measuring the appearance of bullish or bearish terms across Twitter and Google Trends and subsequently creating a ‘bullishness index’.

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The findings of this paper appear to support the role of sentiment data providers in providing investors with leading positive or negative signals associated with US, UK

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