Private credit has become a ~$2tn asset class, and the financial news headlines say it is facing its first real stress test. However, the market’s most-watched number barely registers it: the headline default rate remains at a steady ~2%. The market mood says otherwise: Bank of America’s Fund Manager Survey in March 2026 recorded 63% of managers naming private credit the likeliest source of the next systemic credit event, likely attributing this to the late-2025 collapses of First Brands and Tricolor, giving the anxiety a face.