Alternative Data News and Insight

All news

Nowcasting COVID-19 (Part I)

The outbreak of coronavirus was a massive shock to an already fragile global economy – causing many markets to slip into recession earlier last month. Much about COVID-19 remains uncertain, however, alternative data can offer investors and policymakers greater clarity on its most damaging impacts. We outline the datasets that offer timely signals of the most affected areas of the global macroeconomy. 

Early economic outlooks on COVID-19’s most detrimental impacts had expected it to remain within Chinese borders, requiring only modest downgrades to global growth forecasts. As the virus spread outside of China, it evolved from ugly duckling into a catastrophic black swan that global governments struggled to manage. At time of writing, optimism over a V-shaped recovery once lockdown measures end has been fading with every passing day, and hysteresis is becoming a greater economic reality. This is where alternative data can offer early insights into macroeconomic performance – ahead of official statistical releases.

When will global demand recover? How much unemployment will persist? What will happen in the most affected industries and regions? How can we predict the oil price in these current conditions? And how low will rates go? – These are some of the most critical questions that alt data sources can help answer


Predictive PMI modeling

The weakening of both external demand and domestic consumption in China has already been putting pressure on the manufacturing sector. China’s PMI was exacerbated further after the outbreak of the virus – as demonstrated by February’s PMI figures, which fell more aggressively than during the GFC.

Request a Neudata trial

We'd like to know a bit more about you and your business, so we can deal with your request efficiently.
We take your privacy seriously and handle your personal data in line with our privacy statement.

We use your email address as part of allowing you access to your account and in order to provide you details with our products that might be of interest to you

Analyst Contact

Julia Asri Meigh Head of ESG Data Research (London)

Relevant Neudata Scout reports

Contact us to get access