Neudata

Backtesting crop production forecasts

We highlight key findings from a commodity alternative data provider’s recent backtest on their US corn production forecasts. Specifically, the results establish that the group’s forecasts lead USDA estimates, market consensus, and corn futures closing prices. Neudata are the first third party to be made aware of these results.

Many providers of crop intelligence estimate crop health and production by solely analysing satellite information or weather information. This alternative data provider’s methodology is to combine both weather and satellite information, coupled with a less outdated practice and zero reliance on ground surveys, to produce a daily updating crop yield and production forecast for the US.

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The group backtested their corn forecasts from 2003 to 2017 to evaluate whether their point-in-time historical data generated positive returns on long and short positions on

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Author

Chashaka Wimalaweera Analyst (Asia)