The US government shutdown in 2025 and the decline in credibility of US economic data have led to increased demand for alternative sources. With those issues behind us (for now), interest has shifted to higher-frequency alternatives to official statistics, due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. In this piece, we outline the vendors that provide nowcasts for official statistics and compare them based on their accuracy.

In August 2025, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer from her position as BLS commissioner. Her dismissal came after downward revisions to the job market report, raising concerns that it was based on rigged numbers and leading many to doubt the credibility of official US data.

Then, in October 2025, the US government went into shutdown (from 1st October to 12th November). During this shutdown, workers at the BLS were suspended, so data collection and delivery were paused or delayed. At the time, this was problematic, as many investors and policymakers were making decisions “blind”. These problems are also ongoing: while the full jobs report was delayed, the Current Population Survey (CPS) was cancelled altogether, leaving historical data with missing values.

Fast forward to February 2026 and the beginning of the conflict in Iran. Oil and gas prices rose, as did uncertainty surrounding inflation and growth. A survey carried out by Bloomberg found that economists’ reliance on alternative data has increased since the beginning of the Iran war.